ML Engineering Roadmap

Levels defined by what you can build and defend once you have them rather than by what you have read. The order matters: every level assumes the failure modes of the one before it, and the levels that look boring — formulation, splitting, leakage — are the ones that decide whether the interesting ones work.

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Level 1

The pipeline, the decision behind the prediction, and a baseline to beat

You can take a request like "predict which customers will churn" and turn it into a formulation you could defend: which event, observed when, feeding which action, with which mistake costing what — and you can say whether it needs a model at all. You can name the paradigm and the task type from where the learning signal comes from, and you can produce the rule, mean or majority baseline that any model you build later must beat before it has earned its cost. Most importantly you can walk the pipeline from raw data to feedback and point at the stage where each of the sixteen classic failures enters.

What ML Engineering Is
The ML Pipeline
What Can Go Wrong
Learning vs Programming
The ML Reasoning Loop
Don't Delegate Understanding
Problem Formulation
Decision Before Model
Prediction vs Decision
Target Definition
Label Construction
Label Leakage
When Not to Use ML
Supervised Learning
Unsupervised Learning
Semi-Supervised Learning
Self-Supervised Learning
The Learning Signal
Choosing a Paradigm
Regression
Classification
Ranking
Clustering
Dimensionality Reduction
Anomaly Detection
Baselines Are Mandatory
The Rule Baseline
Majority Class and Mean Predictor
The Linear Baseline
Beating the Baseline
Level 2

Datasets, splits and leakage — the part that decides whether the number means anything

You can build a training set and say what one row represents, which filter or join introduced which bias, and why the class balance looks the way it does. You can choose a split — random, time-based, grouped, stratified — from the way the model will be used rather than from habit, and you can run a leakage audit on a feature list: for every column, when does this information exist relative to the prediction? You can engineer aggregation, temporal and encoded features and explain why each one must be reproduced identically at serving time, and you can read a feature-importance chart without concluding that anything causes anything.

Dataset Construction
What Is One Example?
Sampling Strategies
Selection Bias
Survivorship Bias
Class Imbalance
Label Quality
Train / Validation / Test
Random Split
Time-Based Split
Group Split
Stratified Split
Choosing a Split Strategy
Data Leakage
Target Leakage
Temporal Leakage
Entity Leakage
Preprocessing Leakage
Evaluation Leakage
The Leakage Audit
Feature Engineering
Aggregation Features
Bucketing & Normalisation
Categorical Encoding
Target Encoding
Temporal Features
Missing Data
Raw Features vs Learned Representations
Feature Selection
Feature Importance
Permutation Importance
Attribution Is Not Causality
Level 3

Linear models and the metrics that map to a decision

You can train a linear or logistic regression, read its coefficients and residuals, and explain what the sigmoid output is and is not. You can build a confusion matrix with a price on each cell, choose a threshold from those prices rather than defaulting to 0.5, and say when accuracy, precision, recall, ROC AUC, PR AUC or a calibration curve is the number that actually answers the question. For regression you can pick between MAE, RMSE and MAPE from what a large error costs, and you can explain to a stakeholder why an illustrative "94% accuracy" on a 95%-negative dataset is worse than the majority baseline.

Linear Regression
Residuals & Assumptions
Logistic Regression
Sigmoid & Probability
Thresholding
Regularized Linear Models
The Confusion Matrix
Precision, Recall & F1
Threshold Selection
Accuracy Under Imbalance
ROC AUC
PR AUC
Calibration
MSE, RMSE and MAE
R² (Coefficient of Determination)
MAPE and Its Caveats
Choosing a Regression Metric
Level 4

Evaluation you can trust, bias and variance, and tree ensembles

You can design an evaluation — cross-validation or a temporal holdout, sliced by the segments that matter, with an error bar on the headline number — and you never touch the test set to tune. You can read a learning curve and say whether the fix is more data, more capacity or more regularisation, and you can explain overfitting as a mechanism rather than a vibe. You can train and tune a random forest or a gradient-boosted ensemble on tabular data, explain why boosting fits residuals, and give a reasoned answer to "which model family" that mentions data size, latency, interpretability and cost before it mentions a library.

Business Metrics vs Model Metrics
Offline vs Online Evaluation
Cross-Validation
Time-Series Validation
Evaluation Slices
Metric Uncertainty
Never Tune on the Test Set
Bias and Variance
Overfitting
Underfitting
Learning Curves
Regularisation
Early Stopping
Decision Trees
How a Tree Chooses a Split
Random Forests
Gradient Boosting
XGBoost and LightGBM as Implementations
Tree Ensembles: When and When Not
k-Nearest Neighbours
Naive Bayes
Support Vector Machines
Which Model Should We Use?
Level 5

Neural networks, optimisation, embeddings, architectures, foundation models and tuning

You can write a forward pass and a loss, derive the gradients on a computational graph, and explain why a learning rate that is too large diverges and one that is too small crawls. You can train an embedding, use cosine similarity correctly, and warn a colleague that the 2D projection shows neighbours the model does not have. You can say what a convolution, a recurrent cell and self-attention each assume about the input, and you can take a pretrained model and fine-tune it — fully or parameter-efficiently — with a defensible reason for the choice. You can run a tuning budget without ever tuning on the test set and without believing that AutoML removed the search.

Neural Networks
The Neuron
Activation Functions
The Forward Pass
Loss Functions
Backpropagation
Computational Graphs
Gradient Descent
Optimisers: SGD, Momentum, Adam
Epoch, Batch, Step
Batch Size and Learning Rate
Vanishing and Exploding Gradients
Normalisation Layers
Initialisation and Convergence
Embeddings
Embedding Training
Cosine Similarity
Embedding Projection Caveats
Embedding Drift
CNN Concepts
Sequence Models
Transformer Fundamentals
Self-Attention
Positional Information
Encoder / Decoder Families
Foundation Models
Transfer Learning
Fine-Tuning
Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning
Hyperparameters
Grid Search and Random Search
The Tuning Budget
AutoML Hides the Search
Level 6

Time series and recommendation — where the data has an arrow

You can build a forecast with a rolling-origin validation that respects time, decompose trend from seasonality, and say which horizon the forecast is good for and where it stops being one. You can design a recommender as candidate generation plus ranking, choose collaborative or content-based signals from what the cold-start problem looks like, and — the part that separates this level — explain how the recommender changes the data it will be trained on next, and how you would keep exploring so that the feedback loop does not quietly narrow the catalogue.

Forecasting
Trend and Seasonality
The Forecast Horizon
Time-Series Anomaly Detection
Forecast Evaluation
Recommendation Systems
Collaborative Filtering
Content-Based Recommendation
Candidate Generation vs Ranking
Cold Start
Feedback Loops
Exploration vs Exploitation
Level 7

Reproducible experiments, a registry, and a model that serves

You can reproduce any training run from what was recorded — data version, feature version, code, config, seed — and trace a served prediction back to all of them. You can package a model as an artifact with its preprocessing inside it, promote it through a registry on quality, latency, memory and cost rather than one offline score, and choose batch, online or streaming inference from freshness, latency budget and volume. You can find train/serve skew by comparing logged serving features with recomputed training features, decide with a straight face whether a feature store is worth its cost for your team, and ship a fallback before you ship a second model.

Experiment Tracking
Reproducibility
Random Seeds
Dataset Versioning
Feature and Model Versioning
Model Lineage
What a Model Artifact Contains
The Model Registry
Promotion Is a Checklist, Not a Score
Artifact Integrity
Preprocessing Lives in the Artifact
Batch Inference
Online Inference
Streaming Inference
Choosing the Inference Mode
Model Serving Architecture
Inference Batching
CPU or GPU for Inference
Train / Serve Skew
Feature Stores
Point-in-Time Correctness
Feature Freshness
Latency Breakdown
Throughput vs Latency
Serving Fallbacks
Level 8

Accelerators, distributed training, the ML test stack and responsible ML

You can read an inference cost bill and say whether the fix is a smaller model, quantization, batching or simply a CPU, because you know what memory bandwidth and VRAM decide. You can split a training run across devices — data, tensor or pipeline parallel — checkpoint it, and estimate what it costs before you launch it. You can write the tests a model needs that a unit-test suite does not provide: data and feature tests, a training smoke test, invariants, a serving contract, a regression suite against the champion. And you can report subgroup performance, explain a prediction with the caveat that the explanation is approximate, and say where predicting an outcome stops and causing it begins.

GPU Fundamentals
Memory Bandwidth & VRAM
Quantization
Model Compression
Pruning & Distillation
Inference Cost
Distributed Training
Data Parallelism
Model, Tensor & Pipeline Parallelism
Gradient Synchronisation
Checkpointing
Training Cost
The ML Testing Stack
Data & Feature Tests
Training Smoke Tests
Model Invariant Tests
Serving Contract Tests
Robustness Testing
Model Regression Tests
Fairness
Explainability
Causality vs Prediction
ML Privacy
Human Oversight
Level 9

Monitoring, retraining, observability, MLOps, security and system design

You can operate a model as a system: monitor feature, prediction and outcome distributions separately, tell data drift from concept drift from a feature bug, and treat drift as a signal to investigate rather than a trigger to retrain. You can run a champion/challenger, a shadow deployment, a canary and an A/B test, and roll back — and you can debug an incident from the business metric down to the feature that changed, then write the postmortem. You can describe an MLOps pipeline without the word Kubernetes, defend a platform decision on cost, and reason about poisoning, supply chain and inference abuse. Finally you can design recommendation, fraud, churn and search-ranking systems end to end, and say where your model ends and an agentic system begins.

Model Monitoring
Data Drift
Feature Drift
Prediction Drift
Concept Drift
Drift Is Not Failure
Ground-Truth Delay
Performance Decay
Retraining as a Decision
Retraining Strategies
Champion / Challenger
Shadow Deployment
Canary Rollout
A/B Testing Models
Rollback & Fallback
ML Observability
Prediction Logging
Tracing a Prediction
ML Incident Debugging
Model Postmortems
What MLOps Is
The MLOps Pipeline
CI, CT and CD for ML
ML Platform Engineering
Cloud ML Services
ML Orchestration
ML Cost Optimisation
ML Security
Data Poisoning
Adversarial Inputs
The Model Supply Chain
Inference Abuse
ML System Design Architecture
The Questions Before the Boxes
Designing a Recommendation System
Designing a Fraud Detection System
Designing a Churn Prediction System
Designing Search Ranking
The Boundary With Agentic Engineering