Form a Falsifiable Hypothesis
A useful hypothesis predicts what evidence should look like if the proposed cause is true.
The question
What should I observe if this cause is real?
Do this
- Name one cause, one probe, and the expected observation.
- Let contradictory evidence kill the hypothesis.
- Avoid explanations that fit every possible result.
Example
- If the backend is using the wrong provider key, backend logs should show a provider authentication error and the provider dashboard for the live account should show no accepted request.
Ask next
- ?Which probe can contradict this?
- ?What exact result do I expect?
- ?What alternative cause predicts a different result?